Are We in a Recession?

Listen

Show Notes

Today on Real Estate Backstage, the labor market remains resilient, with a stronger-than-expected April jobs report … GDP contracted in the first Quarter, but it’s actually not as bad as it sounds … A bipartisan bill seeks to give advantages to first-time homebuyers … and Compass files a lawsuit against the Northwest MLS.

The labor market remains resilient

According to ConnectCRE:

“Nonfarm payrolls for April printed at 177,000 and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, reported the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Expectations were for a 133,000 rise, a notable decline from March’s stronger-than-expected 228,000 gain. The March and February reports were revised lower to 185,000 and 102,000 respectively. The economy has added 193,167 jobs per month, on average, over the last six months …

The April report was the first since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, which introduced uncertainty due to potential trade disruptions. However, the data has yet to fully reflect tariff impacts, as these typically manifest over months …

The initial reaction in the markets has been positive, with stock futures, the 10-year Treasury yield, crude oil, gold and the dollar all higher.”

(Source: ConnectCRE.com)

Proposed legislation seeks to aid first-time homebuyers

According to HousingWire:

“A bipartisan duo of U.S. senators on Tuesday introduced a bill aimed at expanding housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, the latest example of a bipartisan legislative effort focused on the cost of housing.

The ‘Affordable Housing Bond Enhancement Act,’ which Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) introduced together in 2023, has been reintroduced into the Senate as the pair aims to expand housing affordability options for first-time homebuyers through an expansion of two federal programs: the Mortgage Revenue Bond (MRB) and Mortgage Credit Certificates (MCC) programs …

The MRB program helps prospective homebuyers who are at a certain area’s median income (AMI), who may not have enough money to meet down payment and closing costs. It features mortgage loans with interest rates that are below market rates.

The MCC is a tax credit program which comes in the form of ‘certificates issued by [housing finance agencies (HFAs)] that increase the federal tax benefits of owning a home and helps low- and moderate-income, first-time homebuyers offset a portion of the amount they owe in mortgage interest’”

(Source: HousingWire.com)

The U.S. Economy Contracted in Q1

According to the Wall Street Journal:

“The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration’s tariffs and consumer spending slowed.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022.

Consumer spending, the economy’s main engine, rose at a 1.8% pace in the first quarter, the smallest increase since mid-2023. Spending by the federal government fell as the Department of Government Efficiency cut jobs and contracts.

But the main driver of the first-quarter contraction was Trump’s trade war. Net exports, the difference between what the U.S. imports and exports, subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from headline GDP. That was the biggest quarterly drag from net exports on record dating back to 1947.

Businesses rushed to get ahead of tariffs that began to come into effect during the first three months of the year and were dramatically increased in the current, second quarter. Imports rose at the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2020, when the economy was reopening from pandemic lockdowns.

Imports subtract from the Commerce Department’s calculation of GDP, since they represent spending on foreign-made goods and services.

‘The headline decline overstates weakness because a lot of that was tariff-induced pull-forward,’ said Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo. ‘Overall, I think that it was a relatively solid underlying report when it comes to demand.’

Final sales to private domestic purchases, which track demand from businesses and consumers but not the more volatile government, inventory and international trade data, rose at a 3% rate in the first quarter, up from 2.9% the prior quarter. In another plus, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories. 

Still, the report is backward-looking, and turmoil from on-off tariff announcements and financial-market volatility has continued in the current quarter.”

(Source: wsj.com)

Canadian lumber taxes

According to Real Estate News:

“While the current tariff war is justifiably on the minds of many Americans, another type of import tax may be coming later this summer that could have a big impact on new home construction …

The U.S. is preparing to raise anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber from 14.5% to 34.45%, according to a U.S. Department of Commerce memo reported by Bloomberg. Anti-dumping levies are typically used when another country is believed to be subsidizing goods to sell them more cheaply. 

A final review of the levies will be published in August or September, with the rate increase taking effect then, according to a blog post from the National Association of Home Builders.

‘For now, Canadian lumber tariffs stand at 14.5%, but members should be forewarned to expect higher tariffs later this year and plan accordingly,’ the NAHB wrote, noting that these duties are separate from other tariffs proposed by President Trump last week and a result of a decades-long trade dispute.

The NAHB has previously estimated that Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of building a new home by $9,200 …

About 30% of softwood lumber used in the U.S. is imported, with more than 80% of those imports coming from Canada … Softwood lumber is used in a variety of ways, including in home construction for framing, roofing and flooring.”

(Source: RealEstateNews.com)

Mortgage applications drop for the third straight week

According to RISMedia:

“Applications for home purchases saw more declines of late, falling for the third-straight week amid tariff and trade uncertainty and mortgage rates holding steady at an elevated 30-year average.

According to the latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week ending April 25, the Market Composite Index (a measure of mortgage loan application volume) decreased 4.2% from the previous week’s 12.7% decrease …

‘Mortgage rates were little changed last week with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89%. Mortgage application activity, particularly for home purchases, continues to be subdued by broader economic uncertainty and signs of labor market weakness, dropping to the slowest pace since February,’ said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. ‘Even with the spring homebuying season underway, purchase applications decreased, as conventional and VA applications saw declines of 6% and 4%, respectively. With slowly-increasing housing inventory in many markets and first-time homebuyers still in the mix, FHA purchase applications fared better with only a slight decline. Overall purchase applications continue to run ahead of last year’s pace.’”

(Source: RISMedia.com)

Compass files lawsuit against NWMLS

According to Real Estate News:

“The heated dispute between brokerage giant Compass and Seattle-based Northwest Multiple Listing Service over pre-marketing rules and private exclusive listings has now escalated to the courts. 

On April 25, Compass filed a lawsuit against NWMLS in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington alleging ‘monopolistic’ and anticompetitive business practices, obstruction of seller choice, retaliation via a recent suspension of data services and other claims …

The brokerage takes direct aim at several NWMLS policies, including rules against pre-marketing and office exclusives, which Compass lawyers say affect seller choice, hurt consumers and prevent the brokerage from implementing its 3-phase marketing strategy. 

Compass said it had spent months trying to work with NWMLS to implement rule changes that would allow office exclusives, but claimed NWMLS ‘simply refused’ to do so.

‘With NWMLS’s anticompetitive and tortious conduct, the only way a home seller in the Seattle area can effectively have the choice on how to market their home is to forgo using a professional real estate broker at all, because NWMLS has 100% of the real estate brokers in the Seattle area,’ Compass lawyers wrote in the complaint, adding that NWMLS’ rules against pre-marketing and private exclusives ‘prevented meaningful competition from gaining traction.’”

(Source: RealEstateNews.com)

Compass to debut physical, in-office book of private listings

According to Inman:

“In a sort of throwback to the origins of the first multiple listing services, Compass is preparing to deploy physical books filled with private listings and viewable in company offices.

The company calls the project the ‘Compass Private Exclusive Book,’ and told Inman exclusively that it will officially launch in May. In a statement, the company described the books as ‘a curated collection of Compass Private Exclusives available for viewing in Compass offices.’

Physical books will be updated weekly … Compass added in the statement that ‘agents from all brokerages are invited to visit any Compass office to individually browse Private Exclusives listings on a 1:1 basis.’

The Compass Private Exclusive Book comes as the brokerage increasingly makes private listings — which it dubs ‘Compass Private Exclusives’ — a keystone of its marketing efforts …

Compass has argued that the strategy gives sellers freedom to market properties as they see fit, and that it lets sellers try out different staging and pricing plans. Critics, however, have suggested that Compass simply wants to keep listings for itself and that doing so reduces transparency in the market.”

(Source: Inman.com)

Judge dismisses claims by former NAR employee

According to RISMedia:

“A judge this week dismissed most sexual harassment and discrimination claims by Roshani Sheth, a former employee of the National Association of REALTORS® … who has alleged she was mistreated by supervisors and subsequently fired and threatened by NAR.

In an 18-page opinion, Judge Georgia Alexakis of the Northern District of Illinois dismissed four out of five claims Sheth had brought against her former employer, including the accusations of discrimination and retaliation, writing that the former employee had not alleged enough factual evidence to proceed with the lawsuit.

But Sheth’s claim of breach of contract will proceed, based on the assertion that NAR refused to verify her employment or provide any sort of reference to prospective future employers.

In a statement, an NAR spokesperson said that, ‘(w)e are pleased that NAR’s motion to dismiss was granted for four of five claims in this case, and we will defend against the remaining claim before the Court.’

… Sheth’s claims go back to 2019, before a New York Times investigation in 2023 unearthed what several former NAR employees characterized as a culture of sexual harassment and retaliation at the organization.

Sheth was interviewed for that story, claiming she had been fired after complaining to former NAR executives Donna Gland and Katie Johnson that her supervisors made disparaging comments about her race, body and marital status. She claimed—both to the Times and in her lawsuit—that she subsequently received anonymous, threatening text messages calling her a ‘rat,’ which she alleges were sent either by NAR or on its behalf.

Alexakis wrote in her dismissal that Sheth had not provided more than circumstantial evidence that these text messages were part of an attempt by NAR to retaliate against her.

‘Without supporting facts (namely, who sent the texts and what their relationship with NAR was at that time), Sheth’s conclusory allegation that the texts were sent through NAR’s agents is not enough,’ the judge wrote.”

(Source: RISMedia.com)

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *