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Today on Real Estate Backstage, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate again in December, but signaled fewer cuts are likely next year … Existing home sales rose again in November … Consumer homebuying sentiment hits its highest level in nearly 3 years … NAR hits Phoenix REALTORS® with a cease-and-desist over MLS Choice … and finally, we take a look what real estate professionals need to know about the new TCPA rules regarding the Do Not Call registry and one-to-one consent requirements.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut
According to Inman:
“Federal Reserve policymakers approved their third rate cut of the year Wednesday but laid out a conservative path for future easing that sent long-term mortgage rates heading up on inflation worries. The vote to cut the short-term federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point was expected, although Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against it. More importantly for bond market investors who fund most mortgages, the latest ‘dot plot’ indicating where each Fed policymaker expects short-term rates to be in the years ahead showed little enthusiasm for rate cuts in 2025 … ‘With today’s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive,’ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the vote. ‘We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate” … Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which are a barometer for mortgage rates, climbed 11 basis points as Powell briefed reporters. An index compiled by Mortgage News Daily showed rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages soaring by 21 basis points Wednesday, to 7.13 percent … Most members of the Federal Open Market committee expect that by the end of next year, the target for the federal funds rate will be between 3.75 percent and 4 percent — just half a percentage point lower than the current level. ‘The slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both the higher inflation readings we’ve had this year and the expectation inflation will be higher,’ Powell said.”
(Source: Inman)
Existing Home Sales Rose Again In November
In October, we saw existing home sales rise for the first time in over three years. Now, we see that trend continuing as existing home sales ticked up for the second month in a row. According to Inman:
“Existing-home sales rose 6.1 percent in November, the largest year-over-year gain since June 2021, and increased 4.8 percent from October for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said more buyers are entering the market as they learn to adapt to higher mortgage rates. ‘Home sales momentum is building,’ Yun said. ‘More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6 percent and 7 percent.’ “
(Source: Inman)
New Construction Slowdown Could Hurt Labor Market
In the last couple of months, while we’ve seen existing home sales rise, the new construction sector appears to be slipping. According to HousingWire:
“Housing starts are back at the levels seen during the COVID-19 recession in 2020. Interestingly, employment for residential construction workers — typically one of the first areas to experience declines before a recession — has not yet seen its usual downturn. Several factors have been keeping labor steady, such as working through a backlog of orders and long turnaround times to complete projects. Perhaps most importantly, some homebuilders have been subsidizing mortgage rates to help maintain employment and finish ongoing projects …The key points of this report indicate that the Federal Reserve has overlooked the housing market for years … The new home sales and housing starts sector does affect future housing production, which is crucial for addressing rent and home price inflation. This sector is closely tied to the overall economic cycle and tends to show patterns before every recession observed in recent modern history. With the labor market cooling down — particularly in the private non-farm payroll data — can this sector be completely ignored in 2025?”
(Source: HousingWire)
If the new construction market continues to lose steam, we will likely begin to see layoffs of residential construction workers, which is a pretty typical leading indicator of a recession on the horizon.
Homebuying Optimism At Highest Level In Nearly 3 Years
According to Real Estate News:
“The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment index moved up by 0.4 points in November to 75, marking the fourth consecutive month of upward momentum. The index has jumped 10.7 points in the past year. While consumers are decidedly more optimistic — the index is at its highest level since February 2022 — they are still showing some reluctance to close the deal, with only 23% of the 1,000 individuals polled saying it’s a good time to buy a home. Despite the relatively small share, the percentage is up significantly from a year ago, when it fell to a survey low of 14%. Overall, the findings point to more optimism in the coming year … The survey found that 45% of consumers expect mortgage rates to drop in the next 12 months — a new high. Economists have mixed views on where rates will land in 2025, with some expecting them to fall to the low 6% range but others predicting they’ll stick closer to 7%. Consumers are feeling reasonably upbeat about their employment and financial situations as well: 78% are not concerned about losing their job in the coming year, and 16% said their household income has risen significantly in the past year, while just 12% said it had declined. The rising overall sentiment is also likely due to consumers’ slow-but-steady acclimation to current market conditions, said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. ‘Of course, high home prices and high mortgage rates remain the primary reasons why the vast majority of consumers think it’s a ‘bad time to buy’ — trends that we expect to continue into the new year,’ Palim said.”
(Source: RealEstateNews.com)
NAR Hits Phoenix REALTORS® With Cease-And-Desist Over “MLS Choice”
Several weeks ago, on Episode 6 of the show, we covered the Phoenix Association of REALTORS® decision to offer an MLS-only membership option to non-REALTOR® real estate agents who choose not to be affiliated with NAR.
According to Real Estate News:
“The National Association of Realtors has sent a cease and desist letter to Phoenix Realtors, saying that the association’s new MLS Choice option ‘purports to allow real estate licensees to become members of PAR without becoming a member of the Arizona Association of Realtors or NAR.’ In an email sent Dec. 18 by NAR to its board of directors, association leaders and others, NAR General Counsel Lesley Muchow said it was taking “necessary action” to defend its three-way agreement, which requires Realtors to join local, state and national associations, and to enforce the NAR constitution and bylaws.”
(Source: RealEstateNews.com)
Upcoming Changes to TCPA Rules Under The FCC
Disclaimer: The information below is for informational purposes only and should NOT be construed as legal advice. Please consult with an attorney who specializes in TCPA compliance.
According to The National Law Review:
“On January 27, 2025, the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) new consent rule for robocalls and robotexts will take effect. The FCC aims to close the ‘lead generator loophole’ by requiring marketers to obtain ‘one-to-one’ consumer consent to receive telemarketing texts and auto-dialed calls. While the rule primarily targets lead generators, it could affect any business that relies on consumer consent for such communications or purchases leads from third parties. Under the rule, businesses must clearly and conspicuously request and obtain written consumer consent for robocalls and robotexts from each individual company. Companies can no longer rely on a single instance of consumer consent that links to a list of multiple sellers and partners. Instead, individual written consent will be required for each marketer. Additionally, any resulting communication must be ‘logically and topically related’ to the website where the consent was obtained. To meet this requirement, businesses may allow consumers to affirmatively select which sellers they consent to hear from or provide links to separate consent forms for each business requesting permission to contact them.
(Source: The National Law Review)
The big problem they are trying to solve is what they call the “lead generator loophole” … The one-to-one consent changes really only impact you if you’re using a “regulated technology”, like an autodialer, robocalls, or robotexts. There’s a lot of confusion about what an “autodialier” is, but the legal term is an Automatic Telophone Dialing System (ATDS) … According to the Statue:
“The terms automatic telephone dialing system and autodialer mean equipment which has the capacity to store or produce telephone numbers to be called using a random or sequential number generator and to dial such numbers.”
(Souce: ecfr.gov)
Back in 2021, there was a Supreme Court ruling in a case against Facebook that narrowed the interpretation. According to Crowell & Moring:
“In Facebook, Inc. v. Duguid, the Supreme Court held that to be considered an ‘automatic telephone dialing system’ (or ‘autodialer’) for purposes of the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (“TCPA”), a device must have the capacity to either (1) store a phone number using a random or sequential number generator, or (2) produce a phone number using a random or sequential number generator. In so ruling, the Supreme Court overturned the Ninth Circuit’s holding that an autodialer need only have the capacity to “store numbers to be called” and “to dial such numbers automatically,” resolving a contentious circuit split on the scope of the term autodialer. Congress passed the TCPA in 1991 in an effort to combat the proliferation of intrusive nuisance calls from telemarketers to businesses and consumers. With certain exceptions, the TCPA generally prohibits using an autodialer to make calls (or send text messages) without the called party’s prior express consent … the Court held that to constitute an autodialer, equipment must have the capacity either to produce numbers using a random or sequential number generator or to store numbers using a random or sequential number generator. Because Facebook’s notification system neither stored nor produced numbers using a random or sequential number generator, the Supreme Court ruled that it was not an autodialer and reversed the Ninth Circuit’s decision. The Court also emphasized the statutory context, noting the TCPA’s prohibitions on using an autodialer to call certain ’emergency telephone line[s]’ and lines ‘for which the called party is charged for the call,’ and to use an autodialer ‘in such a way that two or more telephone lines of a multi-line business are engaged simultaneously.’ The Court reasoned that such prohibitions evidence an intent by Congress to target a “unique type of telemarketing equipment that risks dialing emergency lines randomly or tying up all the sequentially numbered lines at a single entity.” Therefore, according to the Court, an expansive interpretation of autodialer such as Duguid’s would capture virtually all modern cell phones and ‘take a chainsaw to these nuanced problems when Congress meant to use a scalpel.’ “
(Source: crowell.com)
Since the Supreme Court decision, we have quite a bit of case law where this has been held up. Click the link below for a list of recent cases:
(Source: TCPAworld.com)
If you’re using a pre-recorded or AI-generated message, that would be a robocall. And a robotext would be any type of pre-written text sent out via an automation. Under the new rules, sending a text message to someone on the Do Not Call list will be treated like a phone call. According to The Federal Register:
“The Commission adopts the proposal to codify the National DNC Registry’s existing protections to text messages. Texters must have the consumer’s prior express invitation or permission before sending a marketing text to a wireless number in the DNC Registry. The Commission previously concluded that the national database should allow for the registration of wireless telephone numbers and that such action will further the objectives of the TCPA and the Do-Not-Call Act. The Commission’s action is consistent with Federal court opinions and will both deter illegal texts and make DNC enforcement easier.”
(Source: federalregister.gov)
You don’t just need consent … You need express written consent … Which means if you meet someone at an Open House, or you get a referral from one of your other Clients, you need to get their express written consent before communicating with them via any of these “regulated technologies.”
Now, the use of regulated technologies without express written consent is illegal whether the individual is on the Do Not Call list or not.
For traditional forms of communication, like a regular call or text, you don’t need any consent if the individual is not on the Do Not Call list.
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